Moody's affirms Petronas' 'A1' rating

PETALING JAYA: Moody's Investors Service which affirmed Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) 'A1' rating, today flagged potential changes in government policies for oil and gas sector as credit negative for the group, which is currently being challenged as the sole owner of the country's oil and gas resources.
The Sarawak government is making a play for direct authority over oil and gas resources in the state. In July, the Gabungan Parti Sarawak-led State Assembly passed the Oil Mining (Amendment) Bill 2018 which requires only one licence for exploration, prospecting and mining of oil and gas.
After Petronas failed in June to get the courts to declare it as the sole owner and authority of oil and gas resources in the country, it has been silent on the matter.
The federal government has thus far not weighed in on the issue.
Moody's senior vice-president Vikas Halan said in a statement that potential changes to government's policies for the oil and gas sector could affect Petronas' position as the sole owner of the country's petroleum resources, and increase the royalties paid on its upstream oil and gas production.
"While these changes could be credit negative for Petronas, their implementation will take time and we expect the group to have the financial flexibility to reduce dividends and capital spending to minimise any adverse impact on its credit profile," Halan said.
Nevertheless, he said Petronas' financial profile and liquidity position are stronger than those of its higher rated global peers, and it thus has a cushion to absorb some deterioration in its credit metrics before its ratings face downward pressure.
Petronas' gross financial leverage, as measured by its total debt/ earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (ebitda), improved to 0.7 times for the 12 months ended March 2018 from about 1.0 times for 2016.
Moody's said it expects Petronas to maintain its gross financial leverage below 0.8 times-1.0 times for the next two to three years.
The company's total debt/ total capitalisation remains conservative at below 15% as of March 2018 and Moody's expects this to be maintained at 15% to 20% over the next two to three years compared to its downgrade threshold of above 30% to 35%.
The company's net adjusted cash position, which had increased to RM90 billion as of March 31, 2018 from RM42.8 billion on Dec 31, 2016, will likely be maintained at a level of RM80 billion to RM100 billion over the next two to three years based on Moody's current oil price assumption of US$45 to US$65 per barrel through 2019.
Moody's said this also incorporates its expectation of gradual increase in dividends to the government to RM25 billion by 2020.
The rating agency has affirmed the A1 rating on the senior unsecured notes issued by Petronas Capital Ltd, the (P) A1 rating on the US$15 billion (RM61.6 billion) medium-term note programme and the A1 rating on the sukuk issued through Petronas Global Sukuk Ltd.
Moody's said the rating affirmation indicates that the group will maintain its strong operating profile, credit metrics and liquidity as it continues to generate free cash flow in an improved oil price environment and as it nears the end of its capital spending cycle.
Moody's said the stable outlook also reflects its expectation that Petronas will maintain its strong credit profile over the next 12 to 24 months. It further reflects Moody's expectation that the group will continue to adjust its spending on operating and capital expenditure to protect its financial position.
The national oil company's rating is supported by its large-scale hydrocarbon reserves; strong financial metrics; conservative financial policies; and solid liquidity profile.