Can local newspapers really have 21 readers per copy?

01 Mar 2017 / 15:13 H.

    THESUN, most media companies and even advertisers/clients will be keen to pose this question to industry bodies like Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) Malaysia and the Media Specialists Association (MSA).
    a) Audit Bureau of Circulation Malaysia certifies and publishes the audited circulation statements of these newspapers;
    b) Media Specialists Association represents member agencies who use such circulation and readership data to make media planning/buying decisions.
    Three consequential questions can also be posed to prominent senior media professionals, advertisers and those who are heads of Media Specialist Agencies.
    1) Have their agencies, media planners and research managers executed this basic co-relation and analysis from both sets of data (easily available to them)?
    2) ... and drawn any logical inferences?
    3) Also, is it possible (or logical) for the same language category of newspapers, operating in the very same market, to actually reflect such an irrational difference in the average number of “Readers Per Copy”?
    The table below details the top-line readership figures of four major Malay language dailies from 2011 to 2016, gleaned from runs used by media specialist agencies;
    ► juxtaposes them against the relevant audited circulation figures as certified and published by ABC Malaysia; and
    ► calculates the (inferred) Readers Per Copy (RPC).
    EMERGING ANALYSIS
    A) MALAY DAILY 1
    ► Audited circulation has declined by 244,773 copies (62%) between 2012 and 2016;
    ► yet its readership has been estimated as 3,165,000 (or 3.17 million) readers; generating the inference of 21.2 Readers per Copy;
    ► during the period reflecting most sizeable decline of circulation (2013 to 2016, its readership base was consistently estimated as 3.8 million +, 3.7 million +, 3.3 million and (currently) 3.2 million.
    B) MALAY DAILY 2
    ► Audited circulation has declined by 67,583 copies (43%);
    ► from 158,552 in 2013 to 90,969 in 2016;
    ► yet its readership has been estimated as 1,190,000 (1.19million) readers;
    ►generating the inference of 13.1 Readers per Copy.
    ► In fact, with 43% lower circulation (90,969 copies), this daily has been estimated to have HIGHER readership as compared to 2013 (Q2) when it had an audited circulation of 158,552 copies.
    C) MALAY DAILY 3
    ► Reported audited circulation of 144,438 copies (in FH 2016);
    ≤ 53,469 (59%) more copies compared to Malay Daily 2;
    ≤ and almost the same circulation as Malay Daily 1 (144,438 copies compared to 149,253 copies) – difference of only 4,815 copies;
    ► Yet estimated readership of Malay Daily 3 is only 541,000 readers.
    ≤ 649,000 LESS readers compared to Malay Daily 2, which has been projected to have 1.19 million readership with 59% lower circulation;
    ≤ 2.63 million LESS readers compared to Malay Daily 1, which has been projected to have 3.17 million readership with nearly similar circulation.
    D) MALAY DAILY 4
    ►Reported audited circulation of 182,022 copies (in FH 2016).
    ≤ 32,769 (22%) more copies compared to Malay Daily 1;
    ≤ and 91,053 more copies (or more than DOUBLE) the circulation of Malay Daily 2.
    ►Yet it has been estimated to have:
    ≤ 2.25 million LESS readers compared to Malay Daily 1; and
    ≤ 278,000 LESS readers compared to Malay Daily 2.
    E) AVERAGE READERSHIP PER COPY FOR NEWSPAPERS IN THE SAME LANGUAGE CATEGORY
    Malay Dailies 3 and 4 reflect an average of 3 to 6 Readers per Copy (RPC) during these five years;
    In sharp contrast, Malay Daily 1
    ≤ over the past five years, reflects growth from 9+ RPC to 21.1 RPC;
    While Malay Daily 2
    ≤ over the same five years, reflects growth from 7+ RPC to 13.1 RPC.
    F) Sunday edition of Malay Daily 1:
    reports 162,091 copies from Jan-Jun 2016.
    ≤This is 12,838 copies more than its average weekday circulation for the same period.
    ≤Though the Sunday circulation base has declined by 287,902 copies (64%) from its earlier base of 449,993 copies.
    G) Malay Daily 1 has recently published an advertisement quoting 5.04 million weekly readership.
    H) The circulation audit of Malay Daily 1 confirms a paid average daily (weekday) circulation of 149,253 copies. Since this postulates the inference of 21.1 readers per copy...
    ≤Are we to surmise that of its 3,165,000 or 3.17 million (daily average) readership, 3,015,747 readers or almost 3.02million actually read the copy FREE as pass-along readers?
    Perhaps the media specialist agency heads, their media planners/buyers, and savvy advertisers can share sage insights on this subject.

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