BONN: The head of the upcoming COP28 climate summit, who also is the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) national oil company, acknowledged on Thursday (June 8) that a reduction in the use of fossil fuels is inescapable.
“The phase-down of fossil fuels is inevitable,” Sultan al-Jaber said on the sidelines of technical climate talks six months ahead of the summit.
“The speed at which this happens depends on how quickly we can phase up zero carbon alternatives, while ensuring energy security, accessibility and affordability,” added Al Jaber, who runs the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
Al-Jaber defended a COP28 roadmap that includes a “global goal to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, and double clean hydrogen, all by 2030”.
His comments came as numerous participants and observers in the United Nations climate negotiations have called on al-Jaber to explicitly acknowledge the importance of ending the use of fossil fuels, an objective no COP summit to date has been able to put down in writing.
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, an African climate and energy think tank, told AFP that al-Jaber is right to acknowledge the inevitability of the phase-out of fossil fuels.
“Like a drug addict, we need to kick the habit if we’re going to heal and start getting better,” he said.
After coming close to getting a COP resolution to phase out fossil fuels in Glasgow in 2021, and again in Sharm-El-Sheikh in 2022, Adow said this was the year to get it done.
“Getting agreement on a total phase-out of all fossil fuels is important to set the direction of travel and it then allows the world to work out exactly the speed and scale of that phase-out,” said Adow.
He said a managed phase-out as opposed to a chaotic end to fossil fuel use would be good news for oil and gas exporters like the UAE.
“The clean energy wave is coming, countries can either surf the wave or get washed away by it,“ Adow said.
On Wednesday, al-Jaber signed a statement with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen calling for transitioning away from fossil fuels except when carbon capture systems are in place, hinting at a possible compromise in the coming months between different camps in the negotiations.
“We must be laser-focused on phasing out fossil fuel emissions, while phasing up viable, affordable zero carbon alternatives,” al-Jaber said at an event in Germany last month.
The statement was interpreted at the time as a defence of oil and gas use as carbon capture technology is still not mature.
At the talks in Bonn, the exit from fossil fuel use dominated the talk among activists and experts who pointed to the fact that burning fossil fuels is by far the main driver of global warming.
Activists have organised protests at the Bonn talks calling for energy firms to be kicked out of the climate negotiations.
In another development, nearly all of 35 countries accounting for more than four-fifths of global greenhouse gas emissions got low marks for their net zero plans in a peer-reviewed assessment published on Thursday.
Of the four biggest carbon polluters, only the European Union’s (EU) plan was deemed credible, while those of China, the United States and India were found lacking.
Most nations have set targets to eliminate their carbon footprint around mid-century, with commitments from China and India for 2060 and 2070, respectively.
The extent to which Earth remains hospitable in a warming world depends in large measure on whether these pledges are kept, but assessing their credibility has proven difficult.
Many net-zero goals lack details, and some do not even specify if they cover just CO2 or other important planet-warming gases as well, such as methane and nitrous oxide.
These uncertainties, in turn, have confounded attempts to project global temperature increases, and whether the Paris climate treaty goals of capping global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius, and at 1.5°C if possible, remains within reach.
If both short-term and long-term plans from all countries are accepted at face value, global warming could stabilise in that critical range between 1.5°C and 2°C.
But if only policies already in place are taken into account and more-or-less vague promises are set aside, temperatures are more likely to settle between 2.5°C and 3°C.
“The two outcomes could not contrast more,” Joeri Rogelj, director of research at Imperial College’s Grantham Institute, and a team of international scientists wrote in the journal Science.
One scenario sees climate damages capped a “potentially manageable levels”, and the other “a world where climate change continues toward levels that undermine sustainable development”.
Every country in the world whose greenhouse gas emissions comprise at least 0.1% of the global total was then given a “credibility rating” of higher, lower or much lower.
A handful of countries besides the EU got top marks, including Britain and New Zealand.
But around 90% inspired lower or much lower confidence, including the US and China, which together account for more than a third of global emissions.
Most of the world’s major emerging economies – Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia, for example – got the lowest ratings, as did Gulf states Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, hosts respectively of last year's COP27 climate summit and COP28 in Dubai in December.
Among wealthy nations, only Australia was in the least credible tier.
Today, a third of the 35 nations have net zero policies enshrined in law.
“Making targets legally binding is crucial to ensure long-term plans are adopted,” said co-author Robin Lamboll, from Imperial College’s Centre for Environmental Policy.
“We need to see concrete legislation in order to trust that action will follow promises.”
Detailed, step-by-step plans showing how emissions cuts will be distributed over time across all economic and social sectors is key, the authors said.
The researchers applied the new credibility ratings to model different scenarios for future emissions and the temperatures they will yield.
When only net-zero plans that inspired high confidence were added to policies already under way, global warming was projected to top out at 2.4°C by 2100 – still far above the Paris targets.
“The world is still on a high-risk climate track, and we are far from delivering a safe climate future,” Rogelj said in a statement. – AFP
