HANOI: The Vietnamese economy recovered more slowly than the world economy last year, but the reverse is likely to be true this year, reported Vietnam News Agency (VNA).

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) Chief Economist Can Van Luc made the forecast at the conference “Vietnam financial market 2021 and outlook 2022” on May Wednesday.

Luc had three possible scenarios for the Vietnamese economy in 2022. In the best-case scenario, the economy is expected to rebound strongly with an annual growth rate of 6-6.5 per cent.

The figure is adjusted down to 5.5-6 per cent in the base-case scenario, and to 4.5-5 per cent if things do not turn out well. Meanwhile, inflation is believed to rise steadily due to global inflationary pressures.

“I’m quite sure that Vietnamese inflation will rise to around 3.8-4.2 per cent this year. It’s inevitable amid rapid-rising global inflation,” he added.

Additionally, Luc optimistic that the securities market is likely to become more sound and stable after several corrections. The VN-Index is forecast to rise slightly by 7.7 per cent to reach 1,614 points in the best-case scenario.

Regarding the banking system, credit growth is expected to hit 14-15 per cent while the non-performing loan ratio would be kept at around 2 per cent. Pre-tax profits of credit institutions are estimated to grow by 20-25 per cent against 2021.

The insurance market is also expected to do well in 2022 profit-wise with a growth of 18-20 percent. However, profits from investment activities are likely to stay lower than in 2020 and 2021. - Bernama