THE just-concluded Johor state election has shown that if the main Opposition had stood as a united front, they could have beaten Barisan Nasional (BN).
As the popular votes showed, BN only received 43.11%, with Perikatan Nasional winning 24.04% and Pakatan Harapan coming in at third place, with 20.48%. PKR, which contested using its own logo this time, received 5.93% while first-timer Muda won 3.46%.
The total combined popular votes of the main Opposition would have come to 53.91% – even on a low-turnout of some 53.6%. It would seem that a PN-PH (including PKR)-Muda combo would have been a force to reckon with. Based on a constituency-by-constituency analysis, on average, a PN-PH-Muda combo would have seen the main Opposition winning by up to 17 seats, at least. Take Kempas, for example.
It is a seat that was initially won by the late Datuk Osman Sapian on a Bersatu ticket, who also became the mentri besar of Johor when PH assumed the reins of power on the back of a tsunami of the 14th General Election in 2018.
In the Johor state election recently, BN won the seat with only 11,919 votes, or 38.92%, of the total votes cast (less than 50% plus). The combined votes of PH (first challenger), with 8,405 and PN (second challenger), with 8,036 would have be more than enough to offset BN, i.e. 16,441 or have a comfortable margin of over 4,500 votes.
A more striking example would be Larkin. The BN candidate won with 16,053 votes, but the combined votes of PN (first challenger), PH (second challenger) and Muda (third challenger) totalled 21,271 votes.
Other seats that the main Opposition would have won in a straight fight would be Kemelah, Tenang, Bukit Pasir, Gambir, Serom, Bukit Naning, Sungai Balang, Semerah, Parit Yaani, Senggarang, Rengit, Mahkota, Tenggaroh, Kota Iskandar, and Bukit Permai.
On the flipside, the combined votes of PH and PN for the state seat of e.g. Perling would have been a distant 27,457 votes (64.24%) compared with 15,281 votes (35.76%) for BN. Perling is a mixed-constituency seat with Chinese voters, accounting for some 44% and Indian voters at around 11%.
PH via DAP’s Liew Chin Tong retained the seat. In other words, the majority won by PH/DAP would have been bigger and reflective of the actual sentiment on the ground had the main Opposition got together and contested on a one-to-one (straight fight) basis.
It is clear from the electoral analysis that the fractured or divided main Opposition – with the exception of PAS, Gerakan, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star) and Parti Progresif Sabah (SAPP) – of which is Bersatu, that had been with PH prior to the infamous Sheraton Move in February 2020, has been “instrumental” in splitting votes for the benefit of BN. This is especially true for Umno in the Malay majority seats such as Rengit, for instance, with approximately 83% (and above).
The 17 seats also included mixed seats, with a mainly clear Malay-majority of 56% and above, except for Kemelah (55%), Tenang (50%), Kota Iskandar (52%) and Bukit Permai (53%). Such a scenario represents a (role) reversal of the 14th General Election when it is said that PAS contributed to BN/Umno’s defeat in three-way fights by splitting the (“conservative”) Malay votes.
No doubt, envisaging a joint-opposition effort could be an unrealistic pipe dream, given the irreconcilable differences that persists.
The Tanjung Piai by-election in November 2019 confirmed that the rising dissatisfaction and resentment were not confined to the Malay voters alone as there was a major swing among the Chinese voters back to BN/MCA, by a massive 34.5%.
It was not meant to be a big surprise or shock, in any event, as there had been prior warnings against “semi-austerity” measures (which would particularly hit hard on the rural and semi-rural/semi-urban folks) and direct confirmation of pulses from the ground in the form of EMIR Research quarterly polls since the Fourth Quarter of 2019 and our National Worry Index – where the perut (bread-and-butter) economy issues have been some of the main sources of worry of the rakyat (urban and rural).
However, if PH can realise its “big tent” concept and strategy by generously co-opting PN or if PN is malleable and pragmatic enough to accommodate the whole of PH and not just PKR, then the successes of BN/Umno can be reversed. This may require the main Opposition to refocus on delivering the other unfulfilled parts of the (original) PH Manifesto, with modifications if need be, together with the updated or current additions, among others.
Jason Loh Seong Wei is Head of Social, Law & Human Rights at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focussed on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.
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