PETALING JAYA: Medical experts expect the number of people infected with Covid-19 in the country to drop by the end of phase two of the movement control order (MCO).
Emeritus Professor Datuk Dr Lam Sai Kit, a Senior Fellow at the Academy of Sciences Malaysia and Research Consultant at Universiti Malaya, told theSun this is due to the stable number of infected cases reported daily, which is below 200 cases.
“If the MCO is effective, the second phase will see fewer cases reported daily,” the virologist said. “I also understand that the government is doing more testing on those who are asymptomatic and with mild influenza-like illness, so the number may not reduce immediately.
“It may even go up slightly because of the increase in sample testing. Sooner or later, the number will stabilise and hopefully it will fall by the end of phase 2.”
On whether the number of infections would peak before it falls, Lam said it should go down if MCO adherence rate is maintained or increased from the current 95%.
“In the first phase, many of the cases were due to the tabligh event in Sri Petaling. Since the incubation period for Covid-19 for those who attended is over, there should be fewer of them being detected now.
“What we fear are those who refused to come forward to be tested despite attending the gathering. We only hope they have not generated secondary spread to their family and friends, and these cases are expected to show up in phase 2.”
When asked on the possibility of the coronavirus being stopped completely, Lam said it would be like the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak.
“If many people are infected, the herd immunity in the community will stop the spread of the virus,” he said.
“Sometimes, we do not know why virus epidemics suddenly stop for no apparent reason. Look at SARS in 2003. After eight months, it virtually disappeared from the surface of the earth, and it never came back again.”
Malaysian Medical Association president Dr N. Ganabaskaran said the first phase was handled well by the police, Armed Forces and Rela.
He said an increase of 900 to 1,000 cases a day would be a worst-case scenario.
“Currently, we are seeing a trend of between 150-200 positive cases being reported per day. The aim of the MCO is to flatten the curve and it seems to be producing results, in that we are not seeing an exponential rise in positive cases per day.
“These cases are still manageable by our healthcare system, however, it will be better to be over-prepared than under-prepared as stated by our Health director-general,” Ganabaskaran said.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was reported as saying that the number of coronavirus cases in the country is expected to peak in mid-April.
Ying-Ru Lo, WHO’s head of mission and representative to Malaysia, Brunei and Singapore told Reuters that there are signs of a “flattening of the infection curve” here.
“Based on available data, the WHO office here has projected that Malaysia will see a peak in hospitalised cases in mid-April.”
“There are initial signs of flattening of the curve but this could bounce back if control measures are lifted and if people stop taking protective measures,” Lo said.
